1, 2, 3, 4 Predictions for 2025

1. REPUBLIC NOTE MAKES ITS 1ST PAYOUT

Republic Note is a digital token that’s backed by Republic’s portfolio of startups.

There’s 1,015 assets currently in the pool - this is a mix of startups that have crowdfunded on Republic’s platform and startups that Republic’s venture arm have invested in.

Every time the asset pool generates $2M in profits, the money is distributed to holders of the Republic Note as cash dividends.

At the end of Q3, Republic’s dividend total stood at $1.68M - creeping closer to the $2M payout mark.

Growth in Republic Note’s asset pool is lumpy - there are periods like 2023 where there is nearly no change, and then other periods where a big exit can jolt the asset pool higher.

I would put the odds of a 2025 payout at 90%, as many expect there to be quite a few.

Seeing two payouts in 2025 would be more challenging - it’s hard to predict exactly when exits will happen (and for so many assets), but if I had to give a rough guess on it, I’d go with 10%.

2. WEFUNDER BRINGS BACK ITS APP

It’s going to happen this year!!

I know, I included it in last year’s predictions - I’m going to keep including it until it happens.

Wefunder had an app, but they had to remove it from the app store because of how bad it was.

But over 60% of Wefunder’s investments are made on mobile - and Wefunder’s founder called out in his mid-2024 update that they would make the revival of the Wefunder app a priority in 2025.

Exact words were: “We will hire a team that can produce a world-class app worthy of Wefunder.”

It’s going to happen.

3. STARTENGINE HAS A (SEMI)-PROFITABLE QUARTER

Wefunder has racked up a couple of profitable quarters and StartEngine may want in on the party.

It was recently reported that StartEngine laid off 25% of its workforce - usually layoffs aren’t the marquee sign that a company is crushing it.

However, it signals that StartEngine is transitioning from a ‘grow at all costs’ mantra to a more sustainable model.

Looking at the last 3 quarters of StartEngine’s financial performance, they haven’t gotten close to profitability.

• Q1: -$4,005,703

• Q2: -$3,022,144

• Q3: -$6,785,964

Losing $13M in three quarters is clearly not sustainable. 

But under the surface, the results are a little more promising because StartEngine is writing off ~$800k each quarter for the depreciating value of SeedInvest, a rival crowdfunding platform it acquired.

If we estimate roughly ~$700k in additional savings from the layoffs, we can see a scenario where StartEngine comes close to eeking out a profitable quarter.

StartEngine could also be the benefactor of financial windfalls from some of its late-stage offerings via StartEngine Private.

Growth in the platform, a windfall from company exits, a cutback on costs….all of these ladder towards a scenario where StartEngine has a profitable quarter (if you don’t account for the SeedInvest write-off).

4. CROWDFUNDING PORTALS MOVE UP-MARKET

You know how hard it is to get someone to invest in a no-name startup?

You know how easy it is to get someone to invest in OpenAI? SpaceX? Chime?

StartEngine hit a home-run with StartEngine Private, the arm that sells allocations of late-stage companies (most of which are household names).

StartEngine is finding it much easier to monetize its investor audience with desirable companies on the precipice of an IPO than the 37th brewery that just launched in Maine.

StartEngine wasn’t the 1st company to do this, and it likely won’t be the last.

Just last week, Issuance announced a special allocation into Shaq’s Big Chicken restaurant.

I imagine that Wefunder and Republic are also keen on replicating StartEngine’s success and could soon offer similar deals on their platforms.

That’s a wrap! Reply to this email if you have any additional predictions!