🔮 FIVE PREDICTIONS FOR 2024

2024 is here. Let’s make some predictions 🔮

I’ve come up with 5 predictions for the startup investing industry in 2024. Caution - some of them are a lil spicy. Let’s get to it.

PREDICTION #1

Republic has to layoff a portion of its workforce

Yeesh, really starting off with a downer….

Republic’s 2023 was a mixed bag.

While they launched their innovative Republic Note token, their fundraising numbers were abysmal.

A distant third behind StartEngine + Wefunder, the Republic platform only managed to raise ~$7.4M in the last 6 months of 2023. According to Kingscrowd, StartEngine + Wefunder each raised more than that in the month of December alone.

Heading into 2024, Republic has about as much momentum as a ship ground ashore.

They only have 23 live deals on their platform, and only one has surpassed $1M.

Republic was more competitive in 2022, but getting distracted with their Note offering + crypto side projects caused them to cede market share significantly in 2023.

It’s difficult to assess headcount at Republic since people on LinkedIn will list themselves as an ‘investor’ at Republic. But I assume they have a sizable workforce to work on each arm of their business.

$7.4M in total fundraising only brings around $148,000 in fees to Republic’s bank account. There’s other small revenue streams, but $148k in 6 months only affords you 2-4 employees.

If Republic is unable to drastically turn around their fundraising figures, I expect a reduction in force to take place to slow their burn.

(Note, Republic may have already undergone a RIF in 2023 and it may not have been publicly reported)

PREDICTION #2

The next evolution of Shark Tank

Shark Tank is a wildly popular TV show, and startups that appear on the show often receive a major sales boost when the episode airs.

There is a ton of opportunity for Shark Tank or another entity to make millions of dollars by letting viewers invest in the companies that appear on the show.

I conservatively estimate that Shark Tank could raise ~$20M in a single episode from their viewers, and skim a portion of that in fees to collect for themselves.

Shark Tank already works as a concept so they’ll likely play it safe and avoid the risk of adding in this feature to the shows. But I know there are other players in the space that are launching this, and it could be big if done right.

PREDICTION #3

Hubtas sells to Kingscrowd

Hubtas is the brainchild of ex-StartEngine employees and the Democratizing Finance founder. Launched in 2023, their platform helps you search for startups that fit a certain criteria.

The product is good, but I have doubts that their business model can support them as an independent company.

Subscriptions are just $10/month when booked annually - with this low $ amount, they’ll need to scale to thousands of users to garner meaningful revenue.

1,000 members would only translate to $120,000 in annual revenue, so Hubtas more realistically needs 10,000 to sustain profitable operations.

I think that reaching 10,000 users will be challenging within this small industry. There’s a pocket of power investors for whom this product makes sense - but I don’t believe this audience can reach the scale that they need. 

When Hubtas realizes this, they’ll be forced to make a decision: revamp their business model or sell to Kingscrowd. I think they’ll opt for the latter and join forces with the market incumbent.

PREDICTION #4

Wefunder overhauls their app

This is a pretty safe prediction, but I need to make sure I get at least one right!

Wefunder has acknowledged that their app has been neglected and a overhaul is likely due.

It’s extremely buggy, doesn’t really even work, and kind of embarrasing for the company.

Expect a major overhaul of the app in 2024.

PREDICTION #5

White-label fundraises continue to win

White-label fundraising tools allow startups to raise money on their own site, as opposed to an investing platform like StartEngine.

DealMaker and Issuance are the main two - you likely haven’t heard of them because they aren’t consumer-facing.

But they’ve been powering an increasing amount of startup raises behind the scenes.

White-label raises are compelling because they allow the startup to control the entire customer journey and store all of their data.

These raises are usually heavily reliant on ads to promote the raise. The industry is starting to really get these ads down to a science which takes a lot of guesswork out of the equation.

I don’t really see anything getting in the way of white-labels continuing to grow in popularity as we head into 2024.