"...the waters are bloody!"

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BLOOD IN THE WATERS

Leaning closer into the frame of the Zoom, Rob Cammack illustrated a feeding frenzy in choppy waters.

Through his southern drawl he depicted a scene of intense competition, where even the toughest sharks were lucky to escape with a few battle scars and their life. 

Cammack took a brief pause, to make sure I was following.

He was explaining the overall strategy behind his drone startup - one that he’s backed with $5M of his own fortune.

The strategy rests on a concept known as ‘Blue Oceans’.

‘Blue Oceans’ refers to industries where competition is minimal or nonexistent—vast, open markets untainted by established or fierce rivals. The blue ocean imagery is meant to demonstrate the endless potential in these types of markets.

This is opposed to ‘Red Oceans’ - where numerous competitors (sharks) are fiercely competing for decimals of market share, making it a bloodied slugfest.

From talking to Cammack, it was clear that he knows that the real money isn’t in fighting for scraps. It’s in finding waters where no one else is fishing.

WHAT IS CAMMACK’S BLUE OCEAN?

In military circles around the world, all the chatter is focused on drones.

They’ve completely redefined the modern battlefield, with the evolution playing out on Ukraine’s soil.

With good execution, a $500 drone armed with explosives can take out a tank that costs millions of dollars (while keeping the drone operator out of harm’s way).

Ukraine has announced that they are producing 4 million combat drones a year to support military operations.

Most would look at this space and determine that there’s a ton of economic opportunity in the combat-drone space (and they would be correct).

However, the best & largest companies are vying for these government contracts. You’re going up against industry titans with endless resources like Lockheed Martin, as well as top tier startups like Anduril.

This is not a Blue Ocean - the competition is fierce, and reliant on government contracts. The contract game is feast or famine - you can secure a colossal contract or end up with nothing - the waters are bloody.

Rob Cammack steered his ship in a different direction in the drone space, one where he’s banking on building a sustainable business in the private sector where the cash flows are more stable.

THE $5M BET ON NON-COMBAT DRONES

Before I get to what his startup does, I just want to say that Cammack might have the most ‘skin in the game’ of any founder I know.

Cammack first set out in industrial services, amassing a fortune by selling his first two companies and getting into the real estate business.

Cammack used some of his wealth to become an angel investor in the tech scene. He invested in a startup called Apollo Robotics, which was working in stealth on a drone to modernize land surveying.

The company was too early (started in 2015) and never brought a product to market, leading them to wind down operations in 2020.

However, Cammack’s toe-dipping into these waters became the precipice for going all in just a couple of years later.

Along with one of the founders of Apollo Robotics, he founded SmartDrone and carried over all the learnings from their previous endeavor.

Cammack put $5,000,000 of his own personal fortune into the company, and this time, they brought a product to market.

MAPPING THE WORLD IS NO SMALL TASK

Land Surveying is the practice of evaluating geographies, often with the purpose of establishing boundaries in land ownership.

America has a rich history in land surveying - after all, it was the considered the ‘New World’ to European settlers for centuries.

In the early days of America, plots of land were granted by the British Crown. One of the first major land grants was given by King Charles II and spanned 45,000 square miles.

The land was given to William Penn, to whom the king owed 16,000 pounds.

This of course became ‘Pennsylvania’, which in latin means ‘Penn’s Woods’ (crazy that all of Pennsylvania was scooped up for $4.8M in today’s dollars).

William Penn needed to determine the bounds of his territory, and embarked on a large scale land surveying mission to do so.

Other notable American figures were previously land surveyors - George Washington + Abraham Lincoln both worked the craft of measuring land. And Lewis & Clarke gained a spot in history for mapping much of the Louisiana Purchase.

MODERNIZING AN ANCIENT CRAFT

Nowadays, the bulk of land surveying is done with on-the-ground field equipment.

Land surveying equipment is not cheap, the typical tripod setup you see in the image above can easily run land surveyors $50,000.

However, technological advancements in LiDAR & Flying Drones have made it possible to operate from the sky. This offers several advantages vs on-the-ground surveying:

• Can measure grounds that are hard to access by foot

• Can cover large tracts of land more quickly, with a much smaller crew

• LiDAR, which maps topographies by sending millions of tiny laser pulses to the ground, can work through vegetation with pinpoint accuracy

Drones are just beginning to scratch the surface of land surveying - less than 5% of America’s 50,000 land surveyors have ever used a drone for a job.

This is something Cammack expects will change as the unit economics tilt in the favor of drones.

In an interview with Kingscrowd, he gave an example from surveying 100+ land surveyors on a project where 300 acres of land needs to be surveyed.

According to the responses, traditional land surveying techniques would require 4-9 crew members 2-3 months to map out the territory. All in, this comes with an average price tag of $145,000.

Cammack tested this very same project with SmartDrone’s 1st drone model, and was able to complete the job in 7 hours by himself (see a field demo of SmartDrone here)

The productivity boost that SmartDrone provides can free up crews, complete jobs faster, and increase the earnings potential for land surveyors. 

RAPID PRODUCT ITERATION

Cammack was able to get SmartDrone’s very first model to market in 2022. Since then he’s released two newer models, and expects their 4th-gen drone to be available in July of 2025.

Each iteration works on elongating flight time, improving accuracy, and making the drone lighter & smaller.

SmartDrone prides itself on being an all-in-one solution for land surveyors - whereas competitors require operators to attach multiple 3rd party cameras and equipment to off-the-shelf drones, SmartDrone comes ready to go out of the box.

Up until 2023, SmartDrone’s primary revenue source was from sales of their drones.

But from talking to land surveyors, the main constraint they had with their business was manpower - they didn’t have the human resources to allocate towards new tech.

SmartDrone adapted accordingly, and began offering to do the jobs for land surveyors. This has proven to be a lucrative, and reoccurring revenue stream for SmartDrone.

Since 2022, their service revenue has rocketed upward with a 98% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). While Cammack didn’t disclose the exact revenue figure for 2024, you can use historical data to get a sense for where that puts them.

The shift towards services has the potential to unlock long-term reoccurring revenue growth. Cammack estimates that the average land surveyor is transacting ~$20,000 a year with SmartDrone.

There are 50,000 land surveyors in the U.S. alone, so courting 5% of the market here could result in $50M in revenue a year.

WILL I INVEST?

I believe SmartDrone is building its brand within the land surveying community as the most serious option for aerial operation.

Some things that I like about this investment:

• High reward if this pans out, valuation is just under $11M

• Best product on the market for land surveying, everything is ‘in-the-box’

• High-Margin business on both services/hardware side

• Successful founder with 2 previous exits

• Entirely U.S. based (I can foresee Chinese drones like DJI getting banned from scanning American geographies)

• Months away from launching their best model yet

Some things I don’t like:

• I estimate that SmartDrone is burning around $125K a month, and I don’t have insight onto how far Cammack can fund the operation with his own funds. However, he noted that he expects to have 10-16 months of runway following the crowdfunding round. Running out of money is a risk for every startup, and SmartDrone is no exception.

• Although the competition isn’t as heated as the combat side, there are still competitors in the space. The land surveying space is big enough for a winner or two, but not multiple winners.

SmartDrone is going to need to show some pretty flawless execution to make this a successful endeavor. They’ve shown that they can make incredible products, and at a price point where margins remain healthy.

Ultimately I believe that they’ll be able to show enough traction & happy customers to unlock additional funding from either crowdfunding or VC. The drone space (especially US-based) is heating up and could make fundraising easier to come by.

I’m going to take a flyer on them (ba-dum tss) and invest a few hundred dollars.

I want to know what you think, and if you want to join me as an investor hit the link below!