Which president is better for your startup investments?

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ELECTION SECTION

You’ve got startup investments, and America’s president for the next four years will impact how they perform.

This is not an endorsement of either candidate, just a look at policies and how they may affect specific industries.

For the most part, this analysis is not a ‘one-size-fits-all’ result.

What I mean by that is some startups will benefit much more from a Kamala Harris presidency whereas others will thrive under a Trump presidency.

In my opinion, there is only one major policy that affects startups unilaterally: tax policy.

ROUND 1: TAX POLICY

In his first term, Trump lowered the federal tax rate on companies from 35% → 21%, and plans to keep rates at that level (AP News).

As a candidate back in 2020, Harris campaigned for a return to a 35% tax rate. Under the Biden presidency, 28% was the number proposed in the administration’s budget (Forbes).

It’s unclear what her exact target is now, but it’s safe to assume Harri

s wants to raise the corporate tax rate.

A lower corporate tax rate is a win for startup investors. While it won’t impact many startups’ bottom lines (because most are unprofitable), it greatly expands the free cash flows of larger companies.

These companies then have more capital to acquire startups, so the M&A space gets a major boost. This means a higher likelihood that startups get acquired.

DJT is going to take the win in this first section.

ROUND 2: HOUSING

Let’s get into industry-specific categories, as this is where the candidates really carve out their stances.

There’s an influx of housing startups (Boxabl, Azure, Apis Cor, Zennihome) that are building alternative options to what’s currently available.

Neither candidate has campaigned particularly hard on this issue, but here’s where they stand.

Trump has taken the approach of fixing housing policy, making it easier to build new homes and invest in low-income areas. (Bloomberg)

Harris has approached the issue from a financial perspective, adding subsidies and tax credits for housing initiatives (Bloomberg)

This is a tough one because as important as the financial element is, many of these new startups are bogged down by non-traditional zoning codes, namely for ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units).

I’m still going to give it to Harris, for two reasons:

1. Most of the important zoning laws are decided at the state level, so federal policy has less impact here

2. While Harris hasn’t actively campaigned on the issue, she has more of a history here having introduced the Housing is Infrastucture Act in 2019 (Wikipedia)

ROUND 3: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Trump has historically been against emissions controls, calling Biden’s EPA regulations a ‘Green New Scam’ (Bloomberg).

What’s muddying the waters is his new backing from Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla.

Harris has more consistently supported a transition to electric vehicles. Given her consistency here and broad approach to EV adoption (vs just favoring Tesla), I’m giving this one to Harris.

ROUND 4: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

A.I. is undoubtedly one of the marquee industries that’s quickly emerging with a plethora of startups cropping up.

20% of all VC funding went to AI companies in the past two month, making it the largest single category (Reuters).

VP Harris wants to proceed cautiously, often citing the near-term risks to consumers and labor participation. She also led California’s push into regulating data privacy (Politico).

Under a Harris presidency, you can likely expect a cautious approach with more regulation to slowly & safely develop the technology.

Trump views AI as a technology the U.S. cannot afford to fall behind on. He has vowed to repeal Biden’s AI executive order, which opponents believe is stifling innovation in the space.

Trump additionally wants to kick off several ‘Manhattan Project’-type projects to make sure the military is incorporating the technology into their arsenal (Washington Post).

The former president’s eagerness to develop technology in this space should help clear existing regulatory A.I. hurdles and prevent new ones from emerging.

ROUND 5: ENERGY

The two candidates differ quite drastically in their approach to the energy sector.

Trump directed the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords, a multi-nation agreement to curb emissions and transition to green energy sources (Reuters).

Many speculate that Trump would allow more offshore drilling, end a pause on liquid natural gas exports, and do away with an incoming fee on methane emissions for the oil & gas industry (Reuters).

Overall, Trump seeks energy independence for the United States and believes that we should utilize & profit off of the resources that our country has.

Harris marked a clear distinction from Trump’s strategy, as she and President Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Accords once they took office.

At times, Harris has made the climate a core component of her political platform.

When she was a presidential candidate, Harris pitched a $10 trillion climate plan. The plan would end federal subsidies to fossil fuel production, and institute an increasing fee on carbon production (Reuters).

As a senator, Harris was an original co-sponsor the Green New Deal, a blueprint for a large-scale mobilization aimed at transitioning the U.S. to 100 percent clean energy within a decade (Congress.gov).

The difference in approach is quite clear - oil & gas companies would do better under Trump, while green energy tech would likely receive a boost under Harris.

This is not a one-size-fits-all category, but its clear that the majority of today’s energy startups are focused on green tech - fossil fuels are a much more established industry with fewer upstarts.

As such, I’m going to give the category to Kamala Harris.

ROUND 6: CONSUMER GOODS

The main difference between the candidates on this sector is tariffs and taxes.

Trump championed aggressive tariffs in an attempt to re-shore American manufacturing & spur job growth. This came at the expense of increased costs for a lot of products that were made with components from overseas. (Wikipedia)

This approach could be hugely beneficial to startups in America, but only if their whole supply chain is based in the United States.

VP Harris and the Democrats have advocated for lowering taxes on the middle class (Forbes). This move could fatten up American’s paychecks and increase their spending.

This category is one of those ones where it depends on the exact startup, but I’m going to give it to Harris because a middle class tax cut would boost spending power for nearly all consumer goods.

ROUND 7: CRYPTO

Kamala Harris has not taken an official stance on crypto, but during her tenure in the Biden presidency the White House has taken a strict approach to regulating digital currencies (Politico).

While Trump has expressed doubts on crypto in the past, he’s come around to fully embrace the technology. Trump’s campaign now accepts crypto donations, and he even spoke at Bitcoin conference in July (Time).

Further cementing his position here, is that his running mate JD Vance supports crypto and has even owned bitcoin himself (Financial Times).

While Kamala figures out her position in the space, it’s safe to say that crypto startups will benefit from a Trump presidency.

That’s a wrap! Here are your winners by category

1. Tax Policy - Trump

2. Housing - Harris

3. Electric Vehicles - Harris

4. Artificial Intelligence - Trump

5. Energy - Harris

6. Consumer Goods - Harris

7. Crypto - Trump

There are obviously other categories, but I tried to focus in on the ones I felt most relevant.

Out of curiosity……………..